Dollar Slips Lower For Now; Rising Yields Change Sentiment

© Reuters.
© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse – The dollar edged lower Tuesday, consolidating after recent gains as the safe haven rebounded from recent lows on the back of rising Treasury yields.

At 3:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 90.403, after rebounding for the last three sessions from a nearly three-year low seen during the previous week.

was down 0.1% at 104.14, rose 0.2% to 1.2169, after slipping to 1.2132 during the previous session for the first time since Dec. 21. climbed 0.4% to 1.3561, while the risk-sensitive was up 0.4% at 0.7729.

Despite today’s losses, the tone surrounding the greenback has changed over the last few days as the prospect of fiscal stimulus and hints that the Federal Reserve may start tapering its bond purchases by the end of the year has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher.

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20 and has promised “trillions” in extra Covid-19 stimulus measures, largely funded by additional borrowing. This has resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 1% for the first time since March, rising as high as 1.158%.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) has now abandoned their weak-dollar call as a result of the shift in U.S. rates.

“We turn neutral on the USD amid rising U.S. fiscal stimulus odds and crowded USD sentiment,” the bank’s strategists said, in a research note, adding that they were now looking “for signals on when to turn bullish.”

Traders will be keeping a wary eye on the release of the data for November, due out at 10 AM ET (1400 GMT), as it will provide a glimpse at what is happening in the labor market with respect to hiring, especially after Friday’s disappointing release.

Also of interest will be a number of Federal Reserve speakers, starting with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Investors will be interested of their views of the strength of the U.S. economy, given the rising uncertainty over the length of time the central bank will keep interest rates at rock bottom levels.

Also scheduled to speak Tuesday are Governor Lael Brainard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and, later, Kansas City’s Esther George.


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